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【TED】028:宗教与儿童教育

AbduAlKareem2019-06-14 08:04:06

---- بِسْمِ اللهِ الرَّحْمٰنِ الرَّحِيْمِ ---

TED(指technology, entertainment, design在英语中的缩写,即技术、娱乐、设计)是美国的一家私有非营利机构。TED大会在美国召集众多科学、设计、文学、音乐等领域的杰出人物,分享他们关于技术、社会、人的思考和探索。本栏目摘选的部分演讲者的观点极为新颖,甚至很难接受,但我们仍然尊重每个个体发声的权力,不同的声音在任何时代都不失珍贵。

I'm going to talk about religion. But it's a broad and very delicate subject, so I have to limit myself. And therefore I will limit myself to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality. 

我打算谈一些关于宗教的事情 但是宗教是一个宽泛,并且非常微妙的事物 所以我必须给我自己一个范围。 因此我将研究限定为 宗教和性之间的某些联系 


(Laughter) 

笑声 


This is a very serious talk. So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful. It's when the young couple whisper, "Tonight we are going to make a baby." My talk will be about the impact of religions on the number of babies per woman. 

这是一个相当严肃的谈话 所以我会谈到,我脑海中人间最美好的事物 这便是,当一对年轻夫妇在对方耳边呢喃 “今晚,我们生个孩子吧!” 我的谈话将会是 宗教对每个妇女生育孩子数量的影响。 


This is indeed important, because everyone understands that there is some sort of limit on how many people we can be on this planet. And there are some people who say that the world population is growing like this -- three billion in 1960, seven billion just last year -- and it will continue to grow because there are religions that stop women from having few babies, and it may continue like this. 

事实上,这是一件很重要的事情。 因为,每个人都明白 在某种程度上 地球上能容纳的人口数量是有限制的 另外,有些人 声称世界人口数量是这样增长的 1960年,地球上有30亿人口 但仅仅去年人口便达到70亿 而且,它将会继续增长 因为,一些宗教阻止妇女少生孩子。 所以,世界人口可能这继续下去 


To what extent are these people right? When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world, and today, 2000, there's almost two billion. What has happened since, and what do the experts predict will happen with the number of children during this century? 

但是,这些人的说法在什么范围内是正确的呢 当我出生的时候,世界上的儿童数量不到10亿 但是2000年的今天,世界上的儿童数量将近20亿 那么发生了什么事呢 专家们预测本世纪的儿童数量 会导致将来发生什么事情呢 


This is a quiz. What do you think? Do you think it will decrease to one billion? Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century? Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years, or will it continue in the same fast rate and be four billion children up there? I will tell you by the end of my speech. 

这是个问题。你们有什么看法呢 你认为儿童数量会降低到10亿吗 还是它会保持目前的状况,在这个世纪末仍然是20亿呢? 儿童的数量会每年都增加,并且持续15年吗? 或者它会保持与现在相同的增速 直到世界上有40亿的儿童呢? 在我的演讲结束时,我会告诉你答案 


But now, what does religion have to do with it? When you want to classify religion, it's more difficult than you think. You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this. It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion, but that's not detailed enough. So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map. But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism into many subgroups, which was too detailed. 

但是现在,宗教和儿童数量有什么关系呢。 当你想把宗教分门别类时 这将是比你想象的要更为复杂的工作 当你查询维基百科时,你看到的第一张图是这样的 它把这个世界分为亚伯拉罕诸教和东方宗教 但是,这描述的不够详细 因此,我们继续看维基百科,便看到这张图 但是这张图把基督教、伊斯兰教和佛教细分为了 很多的子群 显得又太臃肿了 


Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map, and it looks like this. Each country's a bubble. The size is the population -- big China, big India here. And the color now is the majority religion. It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people say that they belong. It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries. Islam is the majority religion all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East, Southern Europe and through Asia all the way to Indonesia. That's where we find Islamic majority. And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue. And that is most countries in America and Europe, many countries in Africa and a few in Asia. The white here are countries which cannot be classified, because one religion does not reach 50 percent or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason. So we were careful with that. 

所以,我们我们用Gapminder这个软件做了一个自己的图 它是这个样子的 每个国家是一个小泡泡 泡泡的大小代表着人口数量——人口大国中国,人口大国印度在这里 然后,现在的颜色代表大多数人信仰的宗教 它代表超过50%的人 声称他们信仰这个宗教 印度、中国和相邻的亚洲国家信仰东方宗教, 伊斯兰教是一个大多数人信仰的宗教 从大西洋一直到中东 欧洲南部并且穿过亚洲 一直到印度尼西亚 那里就是我们看到大多数人都信仰伊斯兰教的地方 接着,大多数信仰基督教的区域。我们看到这些国家,他们的泡泡是蓝色 大多数信仰基督教的国家在美洲和欧洲 非洲的很多国家以及亚洲的一小部分 这里的白色泡泡的国家是不能被归类的 因为宗教的信仰人数达不到国家总人口的50% 或者是数据有一些问题或其他的一些原因 我们对待宗教信仰总是小心翼翼的 


So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot. This is in 1960. And now I show the number of babies per woman here: two, four or six -- many babies, few babies. And here the income per person in comparable dollars. The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first before you get few babies. So low income here, high income there. 

因此,现在稍微容忍下我们的简单化处理,一会儿我将带你,通过这个视角来看待这个问题 这里现在是1960年 然后现在,我会在这里告诉你每个妇女生育孩子的数量 2个,4个,或者6个 很多孩子,很少孩子 然后这里是用美元作参照的人均收入 之所以这样做是因为很多人说,你必须先变得富有 之后才会少生孩子 因此,这里是低收入,这里是高收入 


And indeed in 1960, you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies. The exception was Japan. Japan here was regarded as an exception. Otherwise it was only Christian countries. But there was also many Christian countries that had six to seven babies per woman. But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa. And countries with Islam as the majority religion, all of them almost had six to seven children per woman, irregardless of the income level. And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level. 

在1960年,确实是这样的 你必须先成为一个富有的基督徒,然后才能少生孩子 日本是个例外 这里日本被当作一个例外 其他的都是信仰基督教的国家 但是,有很多的信仰基督教的国家 每个妇女生育6到7个孩子 但是他们在拉丁美洲或者非洲 主要信仰伊斯兰教的国家 在他们中的几乎所有国家,每个妇女都生育六到七个孩子 不管处于什么样的收入水平 除了日本,所有的东方国家都处于相同的水平 


Now let's see what has happened in the world. I start the world, and here we go. Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer, but the number of babies per woman is falling? Look at China. They're falling fairly fast. And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down, as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range. And when we enter into this century, you'll find more than half of mankind down here. And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans who live in countries with about two children per woman. 

现在,我们来看看世界发生了什么变化 我从世界整体开始,现在出发! 现在是1962年--你发现虽然这些国家比以前只是富裕了一小点 但是妇女生育孩子的数量却下降了很多吗? 看看中国,他们的出生率下降的非常迅速 然后,处于不同收入水平的、所有的穆斯林国家的出生率都下降了 在中等收入范围内的基督教国家也发生了相同的变化 当我们进入21世纪时 你会发现,一半以上国家的人口生育率会下降到这里 到2010年之前,事实上,我们当中80%的人 生活的国家里,每个妇女只生育两个左右的孩子。 


(Applause) 

(掌声) 


It's a quite amazing development which has happened. (Applause) And these are countries from United States here, with $40,000 per capita, France, Russia, Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Algeria, Indonesia, India and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam, which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States and the same amount of babies per woman. 

这是一个不可思议的发展 (掌声) 然后这些国家,从这里的美国开始 人均收入为$40,000 法国,俄罗斯,伊朗 墨西哥,土耳其,阿尔及利亚(北非国家) 印度尼西亚,印度 然后一直到孟加拉国和越南 这两个国家的人均年收入不到美国的5%。 但是和美国的妇女平均生育率一样 


I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman is surprisingly good in all countries. We get that from the census data. It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful. 

我会告诉你,关于妇女平均生育孩子数量的数据 在所有国家都是惊人的好 我们是通过人口普查得到这样的数据的。 这些数据中,没有一个是不可信的 


So what we can conclude is you don't have to get rich to have few children. It has happened across the world. 

因此,我们可以总结出来 想要少生孩子,你不必非要先变得富有 全世界都是这样 


And then when we look at religions, we can see that the Eastern religions, indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion that has more than three children. Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity, you see countries all the way. But there's no major difference. There's no major difference between these religions. There is a difference with income. The countries which have many babies per woman here, they have quite low income. Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa. But there are also countries here like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea, like Yemen and Afghanistan. 

接下来,我们来看看宗教 我们能看到东部的宗教 事实上,没有一个信仰宗教的国家 妇女生育三个以上孩子的 然后,以伊斯兰为主要宗教的国家和基督教国家 你看到这些国家都是一直这样的 但是,没有重要的差别 在这两个宗教之间没有很大的区别 但是在收入上却是有差别的 妇女平均生育孩子数量很高的国家 他们的收入都很低 他们当中的大部分国家都在撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲 但是这里也有一些国家,这里 比如说危地马拉。比如说巴布亚新几内亚 比如也门和阿富汗 


Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo, which have suffered severe conflicts, that they don't have fast population growth. It's the other way around. In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates that have the fastest population growth. Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child. These countries have six children per woman. They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman. But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million. Congo will go from 60 to 120. That's where we have the fast population growth. And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not. 

很多人认为,阿富汗(这里)和刚果 都经历过残酷的战争冲突, 他们不会有迅速的人口增长 但是,事实却相反 在当今世界,正是那些死亡率最高的国家 有着最快的人口增长率 因为一个儿童的死亡,都被更多儿童的出生抵消了 这些国家每个妇女生育6个孩子 他们有着令人伤心的死亡率:每个妇女的孩子有一半会夭折 但是30年之后,阿富汗的人口将会从3千万增长到6千万 而刚果会从6千万增长到1亿2千万 这样的国家就是我们人口增长最迅速的地区了 尽管很多人认为这些国家的人口是停滞不前的,但事实上,它们是增长的 


Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country, with a Christian dominated country, Ghana. I take them backwards here to their independence, when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s. Just look what they have done. It's an amazing improvement, from seven children per woman, they've gone all the way down to between four and five. It's a tremendous improvement. 

让我来比较下塞内加尔,这个穆斯林(顺服伊斯兰教的神阿拉的人)统治的的国家 和一个基督徒统治的国家,加纳 我把它们带回到这里,它们刚独立, 这两个国家都在20世纪60年代初的时候 看看它们做了什么 这是一个令人惊奇的进步 从每个妇女生育7个孩子 它们的生育率一直下降到每个妇女生育4到5个孩子 这是个非常了不起的进步 


So what does it take? Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries. You need to have children to survive. You need to get out of the deepest poverty so children are not of importance for work in the family. You need to have access to some family planning. And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor. 

那么,这说明了什么问题呢? 嗯。我们清楚的知道这些国家到底需要什么 你需要让孩子活下来 你需要从赤贫中脱离出来 因此,儿童就不是家里的主要劳动力了 你需要有条件进行计划生育 然后,你需要第四个要素,也可能是最重要的一个要素 


But let me illustrate that fourth factor by looking at Qatar. Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today. If I take these countries back to the years of their independence, which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 -- it's a quite amazing development which had happened. Look at Bangladesh and Qatar. With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop in number of babies per woman. 

就让我来解释下第四个要素 通过对卡达尔的观察 这里,是卡塔尔目前的状况,然后这里是孟加拉国目前的状况 如果我把这两个国家带回到他们刚刚独立那年 差不多是同一年,1971年和1972年 这是一个已经发生了的,并且令人惊叹的进步 看看孟加拉国和卡达尔 虽然他们的收入差别这么大 但是生育率却几乎同步降低 


And what is the reason in Qatar? Well I do as I always do. I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage -- It's a very good webpage. I recommend it -- and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here -- and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends. Very interesting. Lots to read. I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman. These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar, and they say the most important factors are: "Increased age at first marriage, increased educational level of Qatari woman and more women integrated in the labor force." I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more. This is a country that indeed has gone through a very, very interesting modernization. 

那么,卡达尔人口下降的原因是什么呢? 我就按照我一贯的作法 我去查询卡塔尔官方授权的数据,去了他们的官方网页 这是个非常不错的网页,我向你们强烈推荐 然后我查阅这个网页--是的,你的确能在这里享受到很多乐趣 他们提供的数据是免费的,我查找到了卡塔尔的社会发展趋势 非常有趣,有很多值得阅读的地方 我查找到了新生儿出生率,接着我看到了整个国家的妇女生育孩子数量 这些都是卡塔尔官方机构的学者和专家, 他们说最重要的因素是: 提高首次结婚的年龄 提高卡塔尔妇女的受教育水平 整合更多的妇女去工作 我非常同意这个说法,科学也非常同意这个说法 这就是一个国家的确经历过的事 一个非常,非常有意思的现代化 


So what it is, is these four: Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work, women should get education and join the labor force and family planning should be accessible. 

那么这个现代化是什么呢,它是以下四点: 儿童应该活下来,他们也不应该被需要工作 妇女应该接受教育,同时要参加工作 必须进行易于实施的计划生育 


Now look again at this. The average number of children in the world is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today. There are countries up here which are very poor. And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed. I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk. And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman. So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz, it's two. 

现在,我们再来看一下这个 世界的新生儿平均出生数量 就像哥伦比亚----它目前是2.4个 比这个数高的国家都非常贫穷 这些地方就非常需要计划生育,让更多的儿童存活下来 在上次梅琳达·盖茨的TED演讲上,我就强烈建议过这个观点 然后在这里,生育率下降,这里的很多国家,每个妇女生育孩子的数量低于2个 那么现在,回到我一开始给你们的小测试,然后揭晓答案 它的答案是第二个 


We have reached peak child. The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child. And the world population will stop growing. The United Nations Population Division has said it will stop growing at 10 billion. But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow? 

我们已经到达了儿童数量的峰值 这个世界上的儿童数量不会再增长了 虽然我们还在讨论油价是否已经达到最高点 但是我们的儿童数量确实已经达到最高点了 然后,世界人口的数量将会停止增长 联合国人口署也曾说过,世界人口的数量 将在100亿的时候停止增长 但是为什么儿童的数量没有增长,而世界人口的数量还增长呢? 


Well I will show you here. I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came. They are quite useful for educational purposes. Each card box is one billion people. And there are two billion children in the world. There are two billion young people between 15 and 30. These are rounded numbers. Then there is one billion between 30 and 45, almost one between 45 and 60. And then it's my box. This is me: 60-plus. We are here on top. 

好的,我将在这里向你们展示。 我要用这些你们装笔记本的纸盒子。 对于教育目的而言,它们是很有用的 每个纸盒子代表10亿人 然后世界上总共有20亿儿童 在15岁到30岁之间的人总共有20亿 这些都是大概的数字 接着,在30岁到45岁的人有10亿 在45岁到60岁的差不多有10亿 接着,就是代表我年纪的盒子了 这就是我的:60岁以上的 我们在这里,顶部的位置 


So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up." You can see that it's like three billion missing here. They are not missing because they've died; they were never born. Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born than there were during the last 30 years. So what will happen now is quite straightforward. The old, sadly, we will die. The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children. Then the old will die. The rest will grow older and get two billion children. And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children. 

那么,接下来要发生的事就是我们所谓的“伟大的补充” 你能看到,在这个地方,有30亿的空缺 他们不是空缺,而是死了,并且再也不会出生 因为在1980年之前,世界上的新生人口相对于 近三十年要少很多 那么,现在即将发生的事儿是非常简单明了的。 那些老人,非常悲伤的,我们会死去 剩下的你们即将变老,接着,会有20亿儿童出生 接着,那些老人又会死去 剩下的人会接着变老,又会有20亿儿童出生 接下来,再一次的,那些老人会死去,然后,又会有20亿儿童出生 


(Applause) 

(鼓掌) 


This is the great fill-up. It's inevitable. And can you see that this increase took place without life getting longer and without adding children? 

这就是伟大的补充 这是不可避免的 你会发现虽然人口增加了 但是人的寿命和儿童数量并没有增加 


Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world. 

宗教信仰和每个妇女生育孩子的数量并没有太大关系 这个世界上所有的宗教都是完全可以 宣传他们的价值观,并且来适应这个新世界的。 


And we will be just 10 billion in this world, if the poorest people get out of poverty, their children survive, they get access to family planning. That is needed. But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more. So when you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion. Thank you very much. (Applause) 

将来世界上只会有100亿人口 如果最贫穷的人脱离贫困 他们的孩子活下来,他们有条件进行计划生育 那些都是必要的 但是,不可避免的,世界上将会增加20亿到30多亿的人口 因此,当你讨论,当你计划 未来人们的资源和能源需求时 为了这个星球上的人类 你必须为100亿人进行计划 非常感谢。 (掌声) 

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